Is it a World War If You're on a Side By Yourself?

Every year we fly back to Montana to visit my family for a few weeks to put our feet in the river, eat watermelon, and pretend like it's 1965. We bring our cerulean little army to dilute the Red Sea, otherwise known as the "Bitterroot Valley," ignoring the last fading "Let's Go Brandon" flags sinking off neighbors' porches and embracing the growing Pride culture that is harder and harder for locals to ignore.

Pride - Missoula, Montana

My kids know not to talk politics around my parents, but it's hard being unfiltered little activists. Last year we tried, but a week or so in Biden dropped out of the race, Trump got shot, and I heard my mother say "fuck" for the first time in my life. All bets were off.

But this year - this year would be different. "Mom, everything's calm, right? It'll be regular, right?" No presidential campaigns. No assassination attempts. Elon's gone quiet again, off-grid, sobering up in some NDA-laced pact with the federal government that promises him a seat at the table if he never says anything ever again. It'll be regular.

I wish I could remember regular.

In the past three weeks alone, Trump reinstated the travel ban, the House passed the Big Beautiful Bill, Israeli defense forces opened fire on the Gaza Strip killing 80, peace talks between Ukraine and Russia dissolved, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth deployed the National Guard to take down Los Angeles protestors standing between ICE officers attempting to raid courthouses and schools in search of illegal immigrants, Elon Musk tweeted (and later deleted) affirmation of Trump's seat on the Epstein list, calling for his impeachment, Trump launched his "Golden Visa" program that grants citizenship for a cool $5 million, 6-million-plus people marched in the "No Kings" protests in 2000 cities and towns while an estimated 30,000 turned out for Trump's military birthday parade, an Air India plane crashed just after takeoff, killing all but one on board, New York City Mayoral Candidate Brad Lander was arrested by ICE agents, the Supreme Court held up their ban on gender-affirming care for trans kids in Tennessee, Juneteenth went uncelebrated in Washington, we found ourselves in a moral dilemma with Tucker Carlson, and oh yeah, Trump bombed Iran, siding with Israel and striking three nuclear sites.

Sorry, kids, maybe next year.

But that last one, that's the kicker. It's a carrot Trump's been dangling for a couple of days, claiming he'd take "two weeks maximum" to make a decision about whether or not to invade Iran, but declaring that his National Intelligence Director, Tulsi Gabbard, was wrong in her assessment that Iran is close to building a nuclear bomb.

But I guess it's a moot point now.

So what does this mean? Is this what we've always feared, the threat of nuclear, nay world war? What would it take to become a world war? Well, that part is pretty simple. We'd need the majority of world powers backing us up and following suit with further invasion into Iran. That's China, Russia, the U.K., France, Germany, India, Japan, and South Korea. We've lost most of the 1st world as allies, post-election, post-travel ban, post-tariffs. We're on the rocks with Russia, thanks to Trump's finally recognizing Putin's role in the invasion of Ukraine (though for how long?)

And with a current 55% tariff on all Chinese goods, we'd need to make a quick deal to have their support. But if we do, and if we make nice with Vlad, and if we add North Korea to the mix, we will have the five biggest militaries at our disposal, along with Israel, and most of which have nuclear weapons. During World War II the top four biggest militaries--Russia, Germany, Japan, and the U.S.--were evenly split between the Allied Powers (the "good guys) and the Axis Powers (the "baddies"). Now it seems as though the scales are tipped to one side.

Another lead-up to a world war are battles in multiple locations, which might currently include Gaza, Iran, and Ukraine, though allies are split on these conflicts (for now). And normally these would be fought between large powers, a sort of "battle of the alphas," if you will. Again though, we seem to have stacked the decks.

But the last one is key: technology.

Because the U.S., Russia, China, India, Israel, and North Korea all have nuclear weapons. But potentially so does Iran. And currently Iran has 9240 kg of enriched uranium, enough for 144 Hiroshima-sized bombs. Meanwhile, Russia could make 7,447, and China a whopping 3.5 million atomic bombs. Remember "nuclear" and "atomic" are interchangeable.

So here we go. Trump has bombed Iran in hopes that they won't press the button before he does, and with all the idiot-optimism that he has full backing of everyone he's ever thrown under a bus. Will Europe step in to support us? Probably not. Will China protect us, with the chance of becoming the next global power on the line? Probably not. Will Russia? I have my doubts. Donald Trump has spent the past 150 days turning the United States of America into Public Enemy No. 1, and now the debtors are coming for their due.

God help us all.

Ellie is an author, editor, and owner of Red Pencil Transcripts, and works with filmmakers, podcasts, and journalists all over the world. She lives with her family just outside of New York City.